World
UN report puts national climate plans on a 2.6°C warming path
Meeting national climate plans and sustaining similar efforts would mean 2.6°C of warming above pre-industrial levels this century, UNEP projects. Current policies point to 2.8°C; additional net-zero targets could lower that to 2.1°C. Rapid emissions cuts and carbon removal remain essential to limit and reverse the 1.5°C overshoot.
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From 22 October 2026 — Daily Brief
22 OCT 2026 · 22/25
Meeting national climate plans and maintaining similar efforts would put the world on a path to about 2.6°C of warming above pre-industrial levels this century, the United Nations Environment Programme said in a report released on 21 October. Current policies point to 2.8°C; delivering additional net-zero targets as well could limit warming to 2.1°C.
The annual Emissions Gap Report says the world can no longer avoid passing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold. It examines how rapid emissions cuts and removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere could limit the size and duration of that overshoot.
Its lowest-overshoot scenario would hold peak warming around mid-century to 1.7–1.8°C and offer roughly a 50% chance of returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100. Reaching that pathway would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 compared with 2025 levels.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged governments to keep the overshoot as small and brief as possible. UNEP said renewable energy growth and existing climate policies had already reduced emissions in some countries and sectors, but the scale of action remained inadequate.
The assessment arrives before November’s COP31 climate summit. Its temperature figures describe different policy scenarios, rather than an inevitable outcome.