World
IMF forecasts 3.1% global growth as AI investment offsets war pressures
The IMF expects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. AI investment is supporting activity, while the Middle East conflict and rising borrowing costs weigh on other economies. The fund warns that the headline figures conceal a widening divide between countries.
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From 14 October 2026 — Daily Brief
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the global economy will expand by 3.1% in 2026, with growth rising to 3.4% in 2027.
Its World Economic Outlook, released on 13 October in Bangkok, describes an uneven economy in which investment in artificial intelligence is helping offset pressure from the Middle East conflict and higher energy costs.
The 2026 forecast remains below last year’s 3.5% growth. The fund said economies linked to technology investment and hardware supply chains were performing more strongly than energy importers outside those networks.
Only 32 economies now account for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 in April. Nearly half of economies have had their growth forecasts reduced since then.
The IMF projects global inflation of 4.7% this year and 4.1% next year. It highlighted the risks of a longer conflict, higher government borrowing costs, extreme weather and disappointment over the returns from AI investment.
The fund urged governments to rebuild fiscal room and strengthen resilience rather than rely indefinitely on short-term responses to shocks.
The projections remain conditional on the development of the conflict, energy markets and investment. Stronger headline growth in some countries does not imply a broad recovery across all economies.